With the Hungarian economy likely headed into a deep recession, firms around the country are already starting to trim their headcounts. But since companies are often not so eager to broadcast their miseries, it’s a little difficult to keep track of who is firing. This explains the move by leading portal Index.hu to launch its nifty new elbocsátásszámlálója (“layoff counter”), which aims to keep track of such staff cuts, both through official notices and reader tips. While the counter as of noon today showed 1,939, this number can certainly be expected to rise.
As for what the elbocsátásszámlálója will be reading in, say, six months’ time, estimates/guesses vary. Preliminary data indicate 2,243 employees were shown in September, up from 1,800 in the same month a year earlier, and Labor Minister Erika Szűcs said she foresees 40,000 to 50,000 Hungarians losing their jobs as a result of the current global downturn. Meanwhile, alarm-ringing industrialist Sándor Demján predicts 100,000 layoffs, and Economy Minister Gordon Bajnai has said, ominously, that he is expecting “dramatic announcements.” Other experts told the portal that most such layoffs will take place in the automotive and construction industry, the real estate and financial sectors, and at electronics manufacturers. Though again, this list is likely to grow, so you might as well go ahead and bookmark that page. Ugh.
This, of course, makes no sense without its equivalent ‘alkalmazásszámlálója’. It’s the net effect that is important. More importantly, what we want to see is the types of jobs being lost and the type created. In other words plenty of government jobs on the elbocsátásszámlálója and plenty of real jobs on the alkalmazásszámlálója.
It’s now one month on; and the count is now nearly 20K (from 2K when the article was listed 1 month ago). While I agree its the net that counts; at the moment, there’s not much making the news about new jobs – it’s the economy contracting that of most interest.
Interestingly, in the last few weeks, there’s been no mention of public job cuts. Perhaps there haven’t been – or there’s plenty of cash now in the public coffers?
Apparently, the PM has offered a deal to public workers: either everyone stays and shuts up about wage rises for next year, or they get a raise but heads will roll to pay for it.