Some executives at local media agencies believe that the Hungarian ad market could suffer up to a 20% overall decline in 2009, as an ongoing fall in ad spends accelerates due to the larger economy’s continuing woes, napi.hu reports. At the same time, many of these executives believe the market will further gravitate towards ad models that are more cost-effective and measurable, especially online advertising.
Palincsár László, the managing director of Initiative Media, said a 15-20% drop in overall ad spend is not unthinkable for 2009, given that companies spend up to 75% of their marketing budgets on buying media. Simon Zsolt, managing director of media agency Mediaedge:cia, said he instead saw the overall market stagnating, while companies focus on techniques that can offer immediate returns in sales.
For her part, Zenith Optimedia executive director Orsolya Tóth said the print market could see a contraction of 25%, with dailies and weeklies hit hard by woes in the automotive and banking sectors. Meanwhile, print publishers as a whole will face declining circulation and higher print prices. But she added that some big print publishers could be relatively insulated, if their portfolios reach sought-after readership segments.
The situation for the radio segment is likely to be similar, some of the experts said, as fewer spots for car dealers and other staple advertisers translates into a squeeze approaching 25%. An even bigger loser could be cinemas, as before-show ads tend to be expensive, and the crisis is likely to lead to a drop in admissions. TV, however, is likely to fare better, with a fall of no more than 10%.
As for online advertising, according to recent data from TNS Media Intelligence, it is the only ad segment with any growth this year, namely a 12% bump recorded in January. But not everyone polled by the daily thought online would enjoy double-digit growth through the year. Finally, Tóth of Zenith Optimedia said that online would likely trump mobile advertising as the best medium to reach the crucial youth market.