Analysts expect Hungarian National Bank to cut rates this month
Analysts polled in Friday’s issue of business daily Vilaggazdasag expect National Bank of Hungary rate-setters to cut the base rate by 50bp to 7.50pc at a meeting on September 28.
Gergely Suppan of Takarekbank said the NBH’s Monetary Council would cut rates 50bp at the end of September, but he put the year-end rate not much lower, at 7.00pc, as the central bank’s room to manoeuvre narrows.
The market expects a 50bp cut, said Axa’s Daniel Orosz. But the Monetary Council could take a more cautious approach and reduce rates by just 25bp, he added. Mr Orosz put the year-end rate around 7.50pc and said it would not reach 5-6pc before the end of 2010 or 2011.
Barclay’s Capital analysts said low domestic demand and improving demand on Hungary’s export markets create the conditions for looser monetary policy. They said Hungary’s base rate could drop from 8.00pc as low as 5.00pc by April.
Balint Hada of Quaestor said NBH rate-setters were following developments on the market, not leading the way. He saw the Monetary Council leaving rates on hold at 8.00pc at the September meeting.