November 20, 2009, 10:51 CET
OECD projects deeper recession in Hungary than government
The OECD sees Hungary's gross domestic product falling by 6.9 percent in 2009 and 1.0 percent in 2010, slightly more than the respective 6.7 percent and 0.9 percent contractions forecast by the government, according to the organisation's latest Economic Outlook published on Thursday.
The OECD projects Hungary's economy will grow by 3.1 percent in 2011.
It forecasts Hungary's budget deficit at 4.3 percent of GDP in 2009 and 4.1 percent in 2010, also slightly over government targets of 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent. The OECD expects the deficit to narrow to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2011.
Hungary's inflation is seen falling from 4.5 percent in 2009 to 4.0 percent in 2010.
The OECD expects Hungary's unemployment rate to reach 9.9 percent in 2009 and continue rising to 10.3 percent in 2010 before falling back to 9.3 percent in 2011.
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Out of interest, how accurate were any of these predictions in 2007 for 2008/2009, and 2008 for 2009 or in fact for any period in history.
It would be interesting to know.
@JD: Me too!
Of course they never tell you and hope that everybody has forgotten their "predictions"...
I remember not too long ago the Forint was at 310 to the Euro and people were speculating about 400 Forint for 1€...
Indeed Wolfi. Indeed.
Infact, I think around Jan/Feb/Mar time this year when it hit the 310 mark the predictions were about 360-370 Forint:Euro in the July timeframe (3-4 months). It, infact, averaged around 270.
Of course, I tried to get savings out of Hungary for fear of them loosing value only to have the Forint strenghten by 10% rather than weaken by 20%. My fault for heeding predictions I guess.
Point is, these guys have little more clue about predicting the economy in 2011 as your average cab driver. Even more dangerous, they assume a position of authority and because people think the predictors know what they are doing they listen to them and it causes casualties.
What do they say? "Don't drive the schoolbus blindfold".
It would be difficult to evaluate why the forint has strengthened recently despite predictions to the contrary. The Hungarian economy doesn't exist
and the massive loans from the EU,IMF, have been used by Andy "Handy" Simor to "prop-up" the forint and give it a false position on the international market.
My feeling is that the Hungarian so-called experts in the economic administration have been duped by Eurocrats into supporting the forint because, euro time, maybe nearer than we think.The implications
then start to manifest themselves as to just why
the sudden turn-around in the forint's fortunes?
Interesting idea - but how should we react or take advantage of this ?
Any ideas for us "common people", so we don't get screwed again ?