January 4th, 2010
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Banks expect forint to stabilize in 2010

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The forint will trade in a tight range against the euro and the dollar next year, close to its current levels, according to analysts surveyed by the Bloomberg news agency.

Analysts say the forint could weaken against the euro in the first half, but most see a reversal of that trend in the second half.

Their median first-quarter forecast came to Ft 270 per euro, with estimates in the range of Ft 250-290. The higher estimates – for a weaker forint – may be explained by the run-up to the elections, Napi Gazdaság writes.

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, however, are bullish on the forint in the first quarter, expecting a rate of Ft 260 per euro.

The median consensus for the forint/euro rate was 275 in the second quarter, 265 in the third and 270 in the fourth quarter.

No major movements up or down are expected in relation to the dollar next year, according to the survey. Economists expect a rate of Ft 180-190 in 2010.

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  1. wolfi says:
    January 4, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    These analysts must bbe really clever …

    If they know the rate $/HUF and €/HUF, then of course they also know the rate $/€ – something which has been very volatile in the last years …

    It’s the same spectacle every year – if you show them how wrong their prdeictions were last year, they always find some excuses. So, who believesin/depends on these predictions, I wonder ?

    Anyone remember, when the HUF was at 310 for 1 € – I wasn’t in Hungary at that time or else I might have exchanged my money into Forint …

  2. wALTERmITTY says:
    January 4, 2010 at 1:01 pm

    Wolfi. bewaRE THE IDES OF mARCH. tHAT IS TO SAY WATCH THE EXCHANGE RATES IN fEBRUARY VERY CLOSELY. iT MAY BE TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. !
    (a FRIEND)

  3. Benny the dwarf says:
    January 4, 2010 at 6:17 pm

    These predictions are all a silly game. According
    to economic principles any advance knowledge (or
    even probability) of future events that would
    influence the exchange rates would ALREADY be
    factored into the rates by the market. Exchange rate
    movement mainly occur because of sentiment and
    unanticipated events. Why anyone pays these fools is
    beyond me. Except of course they are good at
    sounding knowledgeable and convincing gullible
    investors to invest based on their “sound economic
    advice”. Bunch of jackasses.