Delegations from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission on Wednesday began the latest reviews of a EUR 20bn financial support package Hungary was granted in November 2008.
The quarterly review is the fifth by the IMF and the fourth by the European Union. A press briefing is expected around the 15th of this month, Financial Ministry officials say. After the previous review, at the end of last year, the delegations acknowledged the progress Hungary has made.
This time round, among general government expenditure and income processes, the delegations will review whether reductions on subsidies provided to mass transit are feasible, how the government can make up for revenue shortfalls probable after the Constitutional Court declared unconstitutional the residential property tax which could have brought in around HUF 50bn, or 0.2pc of GDP, this year, how budget revenue shortfalls resulting from another decision of the Constitutional Court withdrawing taxation of family allowances will be tackled, and how soon subsidies on gas and district heating will be phased out.
The government says the ESA-95 3.8pc of GDP deficit target for this year is not in danger, and this might be helped by better economic performance as well. Last month, the government improved its target for this year to a 0.3pc GDP decrease from it earlier forecast of a 0.6pc fall, and the IMF will probably endorse this projection, experts say.
The IMF and EU delegations will again meet opposition Fidesz representatives. On earlier occasions, nothing was officially said about their meetings. Elections are scheduled for April 11, and Fidesz expects a general government deficit of around 5-7pc this year, economic daily Vilaggazdasag recalled on Wednesday.
Finance Minister Peter Oszko said in January that Hungary had been able to meet its external-financing requirements from financial markets and no longer needed the IMF money. Mr Oszko added that Hungary, however, continued to benefit from the IMF reviews, which made the country's fiscal reform efforts more credible on financial markets.
Hungary may still call down EUR 5.7bn of the package from the IMF, EU and World Bank until October 5, 2010, although the government decided last fall to skip further draw-downs. Of the IMF stand-by loan of about EUR 12.3bn, Hungary drew EUR 4.911bn in November 2008 upon the approval of the package, it followed with drawing down EUR 2.337 in March 2009, EUR 1.4bn in June 2009 and only EUR 55.4m in September 2009. After the last review carried out in December 2009 no further amount has been called down.
Of the EU's EUR 6.5bn, Hungary drew down EUR 2bn each in December 2008 and March 2009, then a further EUR 1.5bn in July 2009 and nothing since.
Published every Tuesday, the Budapest Business Week newsletter contains all the previous week's headlines from Realdeal.hu and related stories from other All Hungary sites, as well as a list of upcoming events of interest to the foreign business community in Hungary.
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