Analyst Gyorgy Barta of CIB Bank said he expects industrial output to grow around 5pc for all of 2010 despite uncertain factors such as the performance of German industry this year, Mr Barta told MTI following the publication of finalised Central Statistics Office (KSH) industrial-output figures for December on Monday.
Although the 1pc industrial output growth figure is positive, the workday-adjusted figure still shows a decline from twelve months earlier. Month-on-month, the decline is even bigger, at 5.8pc, Mr Barta emphasised.
The analyst noted that while industrial exports grew 5.4pc, domestic demand remains weak. Industrial output fell 17.7pc in 2009 from 2008, a considerable decline, which shows that Hungary is lagging behind other countries in the region, where industrial output started growing earlier.
Mr Barta noted that industrial output growth has been primarily generated by fiscal incentives and restocking both in the region and globally. As Hungary’s industry greatly depends on demand from Germany, it is difficult to predict Hungarian industrial output growth without knowledge of the situation in that country.
The negative December industrial-output growth figure could adversely influence the earlier positive GDP forecast, which might be downgraded, analyst Roland Kovacs of Equilor told MTI.
Mr Kovacs emphasised that the month-on-month 5.8pc fall of the workday-adjusted industrial output index in December represented the bottom as this was the only monthly decline of such a high extent last year.
Mr Kovacs also noted that exports fell 19pc last year from 2008, which can also carry a great risk.