TakarekBank analysts believe Hungary’s economic growth could slow to 0.5pc this year, but see it picking up to 1.8pc in 2013, chief analyst Gergely Suppan said at a press conference on Thursday.
The forecast is the same as the government’s projection.
The bank’s analysts put the general government deficit, calculated according to European Union accounting rules, at 2.8pc of GDP this year and 2.6pc in 2013.
The government targets a 2.5pc deficit in 2012.
The analysts expect the general government to run a primary surplus of 1.1pc of GDP, that is, excluding interest payments worth the equivalent of 3.6pc of GDP.
Mr Suppan said the hike in Hungary’s main VAT rate from 25pc to 27pc on January 1 was likely to lift the inflation rate over 5pc at the beginning of the year. He added that the bank’s analysts put annual average inflation at 4.8pc and saw the National Bank of Hungary’s 3pc “price stability” target being reached only next year.
The analysts expect industrial output to grow 5.5pc in 2012, although the construction, services and financial sectors are set to decline and the farm sector is seen stagnating.
They forecast Hungary’s current-account surplus would widen further from EUR 1.5bn in 2011 to EUR 2.3bn in 2012 as new automotive industry capacity goes online. The same investments and improved external demand could boost the foreign trade surplus to EUR 7.7bn-7.8bn.
Mr Suppan said a three-year, EUR 15bn precautionary financial assistance package from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union would be favourable for Hungary.